REPORT: Gas export revenue could more than double to $107 billion this year, Green Institute study finds
A report by the Green Institute has found that gas corporations could make between $78 billion and $107 billion exporting Australian gas this calendar year, as a result of the price surges caused by the US and Israeli war on Iran.
Analysing Norway’s oil and tax system and cost of producing gas in Australia, the Green Institute report calls for a 50% gas export tax.
The report models two scenarios, one more conservatively based on current commodities futures markets, and a second scenario based on global oil and LNG prices modelled by Oxford Economics in the event of a longer war.
In each case, gas export revenues will soar up from the $50 billion in total export revenues projected in figures published by the Australian Government for 2026 prior to the outbreak of the war.
This would amount to a windfall profit of $28 billion to $57 billion on exports for gas corporations this year.
Pressure is mounting on Labor to act on gas export windfall profits, with a campaign centered on a call for a 25% gas exports tax attracting support across the political spectrum.
However, the Green Institute study has found that since the introduction of Norway’s 78% marginal tax rate on oil and gas export profit, Norway’s average tax on total revenue has equated to 59%.
The Green Institute report calls for a 50% tax on gas export revenues to more closely match that of Norway, which could raise between $40 billion and $55 billion in the first year (2026/26), equivalent to $5000 per Australian household, or half the GST revenue in a single year.
The report found that in 2025, Norway and Australia’s oil and gas industry had similar costs of production, accounting for 9% of total revenue in Norway and 11% of realised gas prices in Australia, strengthening the argument for Australia more closely matching Norway’s oil and gas tax.
Max Chandler-Mather, Executive Director of The Green Institute said:
“Gas corporations have had it too good for too long.”
“For decades, gas corporations have paid a lower tax rate than a nurse, while sending hundreds of billions of dollars in profits overseas. Now, gas corporations will make up to $107 billion this year thanks to Trump’s new war, while Australians at home foot the bill through jacked up fuel and energy prices.”
“This research shows that a 50% export tax is not only possible, it could completely transform Australian society for the better, raising up to $55 billion in its first year, or up to $5000 for every Australian household.”
“Australia could have the highest standards of living in the world, but Labor and the Liberals are so loyal to their giant gas donors that they’d rather rob Australians blind and fill the pockets of overseas investors and billionaires.”
“Since the introduction of their oil and gas tax system in 1996, Norway has taxed their oil and gas exports at an equivalent of 59% of revenue and has used it to help fund free healthcare, education, and a strong public pension scheme, so a 50% gas export tax in Australia is more than fair.”
“A 25% gas export tax would be a massive improvement on the status quo, but if Australians want a truly fair take for our resources, then a 50% rate is the way to go.”
“If Labor goes any lower than a 25% tax on gas exports, then Australians will know their government cares more about gas corporate profit than the millions of Australians struggling to pay the bills.”
